Analysis of the September 2025 Drone Incursion into Polish Airspace

The Incident: An Unprecedented Violation of Polish Airspace

On the night of September 9, 2025, into the early morning of September 10, Russian forces launched a massive air assault on targets across Ukraine. Amidst this barrage, Polish and NATO monitoring services tracked “more than 10 objects” that had crossed into Polish airspace. The Polish military’s Operational Command swiftly determined these objects posed a direct threat to national security and scrambled both Polish and allied aircraft to neutralize them.

Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk confirmed the “repeated violation of Polish airspace” on social media, while Defense Minister Władysław Kosiniak-Kamysz thanked NATO Air Command and the Royal Netherlands Air and Space Force for their support, specifically mentioning the deployment of F-35 fighter jets. The military noted that some of the drones were shot down, and a subsequent ground search for debris confirmed the discovery of a damaged drone in eastern Poland.

The incident had an immediate impact on civilian life. Flight operations were suspended at four airports, including Warsaw’s main Chopin Airport and the strategically important Rzeszów–Jasionka Airport, a critical hub for the transfer of Western aid to Ukraine. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy described the incursion of “at least eight strike drones aimed toward Poland” as “an extremely dangerous precedent for Europe,” a view echoed by EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas, who called it the “most serious European airspace violation by Russia since the war began.”

The events of September 10 cannot be viewed as an isolated accident. The coordinated nature of this latest incursion, involving a large number of objects synchronized with a wider attack on Ukraine, suggests a deliberate act designed to probe the speed and coherence of Poland and NATO’s defense mechanisms. Russia’s objective appears to be a psychological and strategic test to observe the chain of command, communication between government and armed forces, and the political resolve of the alliance.

The Evolving Threat: Russian Hybrid Warfare and Unmanned Systems

The drones involved in the incursion are widely identified as the Iranian-designed Shahed series, which Russia has been using extensively in its war on Ukraine. These loitering munitions, often referred to as “kamikaze” drones, are a formidable asymmetric threat. They are relatively inexpensive and can be deployed in large “swarms” to overwhelm and saturate air defense systems. The Shahed-136, for example, has an impressive range of up to 4,000 kilometers in its ‘B’ variant, enabling strikes far from launch points.

Their design incorporates stealth technologies, such as radar-absorbing materials and a low-power engine, to minimize their radar cross-section and make them difficult to detect. This complex, multi-layered approach to air assault, often using decoys to confuse air defense systems, is a hallmark of modern hybrid warfare.

The drone incursion into Poland brought into sharp focus the economic and strategic paradox of modern asymmetric warfare. The deployment of a low-cost, mass-produced drone can compel a military to use its most advanced and expensive assets in response. The use of such high-value platforms to counter a low-cost threat is not sustainable in a prolonged conflict. Russia’s tactic is designed to test and deplete the resources of NATO’s air defense capabilities, as the cost ratio for each engagement is highly favorable to the aggressor.

This kind of provocation is as much about psychological and political impact as it is about military capability. The constant threat and disruption of daily life—through airport closures and civilian alerts—are intended to sow uncertainty and undermine public trust in national institutions. The incidents are synchronized with larger military operations against Ukraine to create a “double layer of military and psychological impact,” habituating societies to a constant state of pressure and escalating tensions.

Poland’s Anti-Drone Capabilities: Systems and Procurement

Poland is actively developing a robust, multi-layered air defense architecture. At the forefront of its domestic efforts is Advanced Protection Systems (APS), a Polish company that has developed the SKYctrl anti-drone system. This system is already considered “battlefield-proven” due to its deployment with the Ukrainian Armed Forces. A key technological feature of the SKYctrl is its use of machine learning algorithms to automatically distinguish between UAVs and birds, reducing false alarms. APS has also entered into strategic partnerships with Estonia’s Frankenburg Technologies and Norway’s Kongsberg, with the stated goal of building a “European shield” against drone threats.

Another notable Polish development is the “Monster” anti-drone system by WB Electronics. While specific technical details of this system remain undisclosed, its development is explicitly informed by insights gleaned from the ongoing conflict in Ukraine, showcasing Poland’s commitment to creating relevant solutions.

Poland’s defense strategy is not limited to domestic innovation. The country is a major procurer of advanced military technologies from its allies. A centerpiece of this effort is the WISŁA air and missile defense program, under which Poland is acquiring Raytheon’s Lower Tier Air and Missile Defense Sensor (LTAMDS). This next-generation system is notable for its 360-degree coverage and ability to counter advanced threats, including hypersonic weapons. Poland is the first international customer to incorporate the LTAMDS into its defense network.

It is important to note that while some sources have discussed systems from DRS RADA, there is no public record of a direct procurement deal for these systems by Poland’s military. The more relevant and confirmed procurement in this space is with Raytheon.

Analysis of Poland’s C-UAS Strategy and Future Outlook

The response to the drone incursion demonstrated Poland’s strengths as a committed NATO ally. The military’s ability to swiftly raise its readiness level and launch a coordinated response with allied forces shows a mature and well-trained military. The existence of indigenous solutions like APS’s battlefield-proven systems further strengthens Poland’s position.

However, the incident also underscored a significant weakness. The dependence on high-cost, high-end assets like F-35s to counter low-cost, expendable drones reveals a tactical gap that needs to be filled. The current layered defense, which includes systems like the Piorun and Pilica+, must be complemented with more cost-effective solutions, such as programmable ammunition for cannons and expanded radar coverage in the east, to effectively counter a saturation attack scenario.

The drone incursion is likely to serve as a powerful catalyst for accelerating Poland’s military modernization, particularly in the C-UAS sector. The government has already embarked on what it calls a “drone revolution,” pledging significant funding and creating a national Drone Centre. This incident, by demonstrating the acute and immediate nature of the threat, will almost certainly reinforce the political will to fund and implement these initiatives.

Furthermore, the incursion provides a clear and urgent case for a more unified and integrated C-UAS doctrine within NATO. The response, while effective, relied on an ad-hoc collaboration with allied forces. A more permanent and coordinated strategy is now a military and political imperative. The incident, described by some officials as a test of NATO’s resolve, will be a key point of discussion for the alliance, likely driving efforts to standardize systems and formalize rules of engagement for a more cohesive “European shield.”

The incident was not a random event but a calculated act of hybrid warfare. It successfully served as a comprehensive test of Poland’s and NATO’s defense capabilities and political resolve. The response was a coordinated and robust demonstration of collective security, with Poland’s military and its allies effectively neutralizing the threat.