Croatia's Shield: Forging a National Anti-Drone Defense in a New Era of Warfare

Why Croatia Needs It

Croatia’s investment is driven by its strategic position as a frontline NATO/EU state in the Western Balkans, amid increasingly complex security challenges. The initiative comes “amid heightened geopolitical tensions in the Balkans and Europe” following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. As a relatively small country with limited legacy air-defense assets, Croatia has largely depended on NATO’s integrated air shield for high-altitude threats. However, recent events exposed gaps in rapid response to low-flying, asymmetric drone incursions that traditional air defenses (or allied jets) might miss. President Zoran Milanović openly acknowledged that due to past underinvestment, “Croatia lacks air defence and is left fully dependent on [its] Western allies” until new systems (like 12 Rafale fighter jets) are delivered. The new C-UAS network is meant to fill this gap, providing a 24/7 quick-reaction umbrella against drones that could slip through NATO’s larger air-policing grid.

Domestic leadership also frames the C-UAS project as an investment in high-tech self-reliance. “Croatia is not only buying new military equipment; we’re investing in knowledge, technology, and our industrial base,” Minister Anušić stressed. The partnership with APS and involvement of Croatian firms (like Končar and Đuro Đaković) will transfer valuable know-how, helping integrate Croatia “deeper into Europe’s defense supply chain.” In fact, the 2025 modernization plan brings Croatia’s defense spending to the NATO target of 2% of GDP – with over 20% of the budget devoted to procurement and R&D on new capabilities. This marks a significant shift toward cutting-edge domains (digital, unmanned, AI-driven warfare) that Croatia views as critical for future security. By committing over 2% of GDP (and planning to reach 2.5% by 2027), Croatia is signaling its determination to shoulder more responsibility within NATO and address emerging threats directly. In sum, the C-UAS initiative is seen as vital to protect the country’s airspace, boost domestic defense innovation, and ensure interoperability with allies in confronting modern aerial threats.

The Catalyst: The 2022 Zagreb Drone Incident

The strategic shock of March 10, 2022, provided the undeniable impetus for Croatia’s C-UAS program. On that night, the crash of a Soviet-era reconnaissance drone in a densely populated Zagreb neighborhood exposed a critical vulnerability in both Croatian and broader NATO air defenses. The incident transformed the theoretical risk of unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) into a tangible national security crisis, demonstrating that even obsolete platforms could penetrate deep into allied territory undetected and unchallenged.

The specifics of the Tupolev Tu-141 “Strizh” drone incident revealed a series of systemic failures:

• The Drone: A 6-ton, Soviet-era reconnaissance drone, likely strayed from the conflict in Ukraine.
• The Trajectory: The UAV flew for approximately 560 km undetected across the airspace of three NATO member states: Romania, Hungary, and Croatia.
• The Payload: Carried a potential warhead with an explosive yield equivalent to up to 120 kg of TNT.
• The Impact: It crashed in Zagreb’s Jarun district, just meters from a student dormitory, gouging a 3-meter crater and damaging over 60 cars.

The failure of the allied air defense network to intercept the threat was stark. Prime Minister Andrej Plenković described the event as a “pure and clear threat,” adding with relief, “we were very lucky” that no casualties occurred.

NATO Response Failure

In the immediate aftermath, Croatia took emergency measures, including closing airspace over its major cities. The incident also directly prompted an accelerated procurement of short-range air defenses. By December 2022, the government approved a €72 million “urgent procurement” of French-made Mistral-3 surface-to-air missile systems as a stopgap measure. This alarming breach of sovereign airspace, however, made it clear that a dedicated, national solution was required to address the broader strategic pressures compelling Croatia to act.

Strategic Imperatives Driving the C-UAS Initiative

While the 2022 Zagreb incident was the immediate catalyst, Croatia’s C-UAS program is fundamentally underpinned by a confluence of pressing geopolitical, military, and industrial imperatives. The investment is a calculated response to the nation’s unique strategic position and the rapidly evolving character of modern warfare.

Geopolitical and Regional Pressures

As a frontline NATO and EU state in the volatile Western Balkans, Croatia faces a complex security environment. The ongoing Russia-Ukraine war has created significant risks of spillover, with Russian drones frequently intruding into NATO airspace and testing the alliance’s readiness. Furthermore, rising regional tensions, particularly with a pro-Russian Serbia engaged in a rapid military buildup, have amplified Zagreb’s resolve to harden its defenses. Serbian leadership has vowed to build the “most technologically advanced” Serbian Army in history while provocatively accusing neighbors of forming a military axis against Belgrade, feeding Zagreb’s imperative to guard against unconventional and asymmetric threats.

Addressing Critical Air Defense Gaps

Historically, Croatia has relied on NATO’s integrated air and missile defense shield for protection against high-altitude threats. However, this framework has proven insufficient for countering low-altitude, slow-moving drone incursions that can fly under the detection thresholds of traditional radar systems. This is a vulnerability openly acknowledged by President Zoran Milanović, who stated that due to past underinvestment, “Croatia lacks air defence and is left fully dependent on [its] Western allies.” The war in Ukraine has provided a brutal lesson in the effectiveness of this new threat vector, demonstrating how swarms of cheap, commercially available FPV drones can overwhelm sophisticated defenses and destroy high-value targets. The C-UAS network is specifically designed to fill this critical gap, providing a dedicated, 24/7 umbrella against threats that allied air policing might miss.

Fostering Industrial Sovereignty and NATO Commitment

The C-UAS program is equally an industrial and economic strategy. As Defence Minister Ivan Anušić stated, Croatia is “Not just buying equipment—investing in knowledge and industry.” The planned technology transfer from Poland’s APS to Croatian firms like Končar and Đuro Đaković is central to this vision, aiming to build a domestic knowledge base and integrate Croatia more deeply into Europe’s defense supply chain.

This industrial ambition is backed by a firm financial commitment to allied security. Croatia’s 2025 defense plan brings its spending to the 2% GDP NATO target, with a stated goal of reaching 2.5% by 2027. Critically, over 20% of this budget is allocated to research, development, and procurement of new capabilities. This strategic investment is not just about plugging a defense gap but about building the technical capacity to master the threat.

Anatomy of Croatia’s Layered Anti-Drone Network

The Croatian C-UAS system is conceived as a multi-layered, integrated network built on a “detect → disrupt → destroy” defense philosophy. This tiered structure provides commanders with a flexible set of tools to counter a wide spectrum of unmanned threats, from small commercial drones to larger, military-grade UAVs. The system’s phased rollout is designed to build this comprehensive capability incrementally.

By 2030, the final planned configuration will consist of two stationary and two mobile units, creating a fully integrated and NATO-interoperable defense network.

A central pillar of this network is the leveraging of Croatia’s burgeoning domestic drone industry. The country already produces approximately 200,000 FPV drones annually for its own forces and international partners, with concrete plans to scale production into the millions as required. In a closed-loop industrial ecosystem, these same Croatian-made drones will be repurposed as the primary interceptors for the C-UAS network, ensuring a sovereign supply chain. This synergy between production and defense highlights Croatia’s ambition to move from a consumer of technology to a key contributor.

From Consumer to Contributor: Croatia’s Long-Term Vision

Croatia’s C-UAS initiative is more than a defensive measure; it is a core component of a national strategy to transition from a consumer of allied defense technology to a key innovator and contributor within the European defense ecosystem. By mastering both drone and counter-drone technologies, Zagreb aims to secure its own sovereignty while simultaneously enhancing the collective security of the NATO alliance.

By 2030, Croatia’s strategic goals for this program include the ability to:

• Protect its own skies 24/7 with a sovereign, layered C-UAS shield.
• Export Croatian anti-drone technology and interceptors to NATO partners.
• Deploy its C-UAS systems to protect alliance facilities abroad.
• Position itself as a European leader in drone and counter-drone innovation.

This vision is reinforced by Minister Anušić’s description of the country’s FPV drones as a “100% Croatian product… in global demand.” The ultimate objective is clear: to create a national defense asset that is also a valuable export, strengthening both Croatia’s economy and its strategic standing. Through this initiative, Croatia is building a shield not only for itself but for its allies, positioning itself as a proactive security provider for the modern drone age.

Key Takeaways

Croatia’s C-UAS program is a comprehensive response to 21st-century threats. The initiative yields five critical takeaways:

1. The 2022 Zagreb incident served as an undeniable catalyst, exposing critical gaps in NATO’s low-altitude air defense.
2. Croatia’s C-UAS system implements a layered defense strategy to detect, disrupt, and destroy a wide range of unmanned aerial threats.
3. The program cultivates national sovereignty by leveraging domestic industry and aiming to become a net exporter of defense technology.
4. This initiative addresses complex geopolitical risks, including spillover from the war in Ukraine and regional tensions in the Balkans.
5. Croatia is significantly increasing its defense investment, meeting NATO spending targets and positioning itself as a proactive security contributor.